Canada Could Add C$98 Billion Annually with More Metal Refining

Canada’s economy could gain as much as C$98 billion ($70 billion) annually by 2035. This requires building more domestic processing capacity for critical minerals, Export Development Canada (EDC) said in a new report. The government’s trade agency warned Canada risks losing value by exporting raw commodities.

EDC stated that companies “leave significant profits on the table” by selling raw materials. They noted that selling more complex, processed products generates compounding gains. The report identified rare earths, graphite, lithium, copper, and uranium as key commodities for domestic value creation.

Canada’s economic complexity ranking fell to 35th globally in 2024, down from 17th in 1995. This decline since 1996 has resulted in about 3% less growth in real GDP per person over a decade, according to EDC. The agency estimates that moving into products aligned with Canada’s existing capabilities could add about $53 billion to GDP by 2035, with a broader shift lifting the gain by another $45 billion.

Building these new industries faces several challenges. EDC identified shortages in long-term capital, skilled workers, commercialization capacity, and trade infrastructure. Canada’s transport network primarily handles bulk commodities, but higher-value supply chains need closer links between mines, processors, and ports.