Goldman Sachs Elevates European Gas Price Outlook for 2026

Investment bank Goldman Sachs has revised its Dutch TTF natural gas forecast upwards for 2026. The adjustment reflects tighter market balances driven by recent cold weather and sustained demand.

Background

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs recently announced an upward revision to its European natural gas price projections. The firm now anticipates the Dutch TTF benchmark to average €42 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2026. This marks a significant increase from its previous forecast of €35/MWh.

Market Context

The primary driver for this adjustment is the impact of colder-than-expected weather conditions across Europe. This has led to a notable tightening of market balances. Higher heating demand has drawn down gas storage levels more rapidly than initially projected by analysts.

Local Relevance

Analysts at Goldman Sachs highlighted the resilience of demand despite ongoing energy transition efforts. They noted that while renewable energy adoption continues, natural gas remains a crucial component of Europe's energy mix, especially during peak demand periods. This sustained reliance underpins the revised outlook.

Outlook

For GCC nations, major global energy exporters, these developments are closely watched. Higher European gas prices could influence global LNG market dynamics. It might also underscore the continued strategic importance of natural gas in the global energy landscape for the foreseeable future.

The revised forecast suggests that European energy consumers and industries may face elevated costs for longer. This could have broader implications for inflation and economic growth across the continent. Goldman Sachs' outlook provides a key indicator for future energy market trends.