Gold Price Forecast: $5,000/Ounce by 2026? GCC Impact

Background

Global financial markets are buzzing with projections that gold could reach an unprecedented $5,000 per ounce by 2026. This significant forecast comes amidst a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty and shifting economic landscapes worldwide. The precious metal's recent performance underscores its enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Market Context

Gold prices have demonstrated remarkable upward momentum since early 2025. Starting around $2,620 per ounce in January, values recently surpassed $4,400. This surge is not merely speculative, according to gold expert Alamdar Al-Mousawi, but reflects a deliberate trajectory shaped by historical trends and precise technical analysis.

Local Relevance

The global gold market saw substantial activity, with approximately 1.31 tons traded, valued over $146 billion, by the end of the third quarter. Central banks have been key drivers, with net purchases reaching 53 tons in October alone, contributing to a year-to-date total of 254 tons. This reflects growing concerns over the US dollar's strength and government bonds.

Outlook

Several factors fuel this bullish outlook. Geopolitical tensions, persistent global inflationary pressures, and fluctuating central bank policies, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve, consistently push gold higher. These conditions reinforce gold's traditional role as a hedge against economic instability and sovereign debt crises.

Technical analysis suggests current price peaks have established robust support levels, forming a new base for future growth. Investment in gold is increasingly seen as a strategic decision, requiring careful analysis of economic and political events, rather than mere chance.

The Kuwaiti market has actively participated in this global gold rally. For regional investors, understanding gold's dual nature – as jewelry and as an investment – is crucial. Expert Behbehani advises against short-term speculation, advocating for a long-term, gradual purchasing strategy for genuine investment.

While consumer demand for gold jewelry might face challenges, and profit-taking could induce temporary price fluctuations, the overall positive outlook for gold as a hedging instrument remains strong for GCC investors.

The path to $5,000 per ounce hinges on the continuation of current supporting factors, including global political stability, managing sovereign debt, and the trajectory of US interest rates. Investors should closely monitor economic reforms and developments in bond and stock markets. Gold is entering a new phase of global revaluation, promising continued strong performance throughout 2026, despite potential short-term volatility.